What does Tom Suozzi’s big win in NY-3 mean for November elections?

Tom Suozzi is heading back to Congress after winning Tuesday’s special election against Republican candidate Mazi Pilip — and Democrats are hoping it’s a sign of things to come.

Suozzi, a Democrat, easily defeated Pilip in the race to replace expelled Rep. George Santos in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes parts of Nassau County and eastern Queens.

It’s a major win for Democrats that chips away at the Republicans’ already razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives ahead of the November elections. And it could provide a blueprint for other Democratic candidates in suburban districts across the country — including on Long Island, where Republicans bolstered their stronghold in recent election cycles.

“I've been promoting the idea that this is a national bellwether — that it’ll tell politicians, political operatives and donors all over the country what messages and tactics and strategies will play in other swing suburbs,” said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies.

The win marks a return to Washington for Suozzi, who gave up his congressional seat in 2022 for an ill-fated run for governor. But he’s only guaranteed the seat through the end of the year. He will need to run again in November to continue serving for a full two-year term beyond that.

Here’s what the special election does — and doesn’t — tell us about November:

National issues rule the day — and likely will again

Tuesday’s race was dominated by national issues that Levy calls the “three I’s and an A”: immigration, Israel, inflation and abortion. That stands to reason since there were decidedly national implications.

There’s no reason to think those same issues won’t still be relevant once the June primary and November general election roll around.

“It's time to get to work on immigration. On Israel. On combatting Putin. On helping the middle class. And getting the state and local tax deduction back” Suozzi told supporters Tuesday night.

“Let's send a message to our friends running the Congress these days. Stop running around for Trump, and start running the country. It's time to find common ground and start delivering to the people of the United States of America,” he added.

Republicans tried to hammer Suozzi on border security, particularly as New York City struggles to provide shelter for tens of thousands of migrants currently in the city’s shelter system. They trumpeted Suozzi’s claim during his 2022 gubernatorial campaign when he said he “kicked ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] out of Nassau County.”

But Suozzi ran a centrist campaign, calling for tougher restrictions at the border and, unlike Pilip, backing the Senate’s bipartisan border security deal. In turn, Suozzi criticized Pilip for lacking clarity in her stance on abortion.

“Despite all the attacks, despite all the lies about Tom Suozzi and The Squad, about Tom Suozzi being the godfather of the migrant crisis, about Sanctuary Suozzi, despite the dirty tricks, despite the vaunted Nassau County Republican machine – we won,” Suozzi said in his victory speech.

He continued, “So now, we have to carry the message of this campaign to the United States Congress and across our entire country.”

State Democratic party chair Jay Jacobs said Suozzi was not afraid to take on issues like immigration and public safety, thorny topics among the spectrum of Democrats that draws criticism from the left-wing of the party and centrists alike.

"You have to speak to the issues that are on the voters' minds and don't shy away from your positions," said Jacobs, stressing Suozzi's clear, centrist position. "Here in Nassau County, much like other suburban districts, I think that's what the voters are looking for."

As an indication of just how important one vote can be in the U.S. House, Republicans voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Tuesday night, roughly 90 minutes before the polls closed in the special election, by a vote of 214-213.

U.S. House Impeaches DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, 214-213.@SpeakerJohnson: "The resolution is adopted." pic.twitter.com/tIOIDZjK8z

— CSPAN (@cspan) February 14, 2024

The Biden and Trump effect

Neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden got involved with the candidates’ campaigns, and perhaps with good reason: They’re not popular within the district.

Biden won the district back in 2020 by a nine-point margin. But a Siena College poll last week showed he had just a 39% approval rating there now. Trump didn’t fare much better, coming in at 40%.

“I don’t think it would be helpful, just as I don’t think Donald Trump would be helpful to my opponent,” Suozzi told CNN of a potential Biden visit in the campaign’s closing days.

Pilip, on the other hand, repeatedly declined to say who she voted for in 2020 until this past weekend, when she told the New York Post she voted for Trump.

But avoiding ties to Biden and Trump will be harder come November, when both are in line to be their respective party’s standard bearer on the 2024 ballot.

Trump excoriated Republicans on his social media platform for selecting a registered Democrat to run on the GOP line and chided Pilip for not endorsing him.

“MAGA, WHICH IS MOST OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, STAYED HOME - AND IT ALWAYS WILL, UNLESS IT IS TREATED WITH THE RESPECT THAT IT DESERVES,” Trump wrote in a post to Truth Social.

Polling shows Trump ahead in the district in a matchup with Biden, but that could change with new district lines. (More on that in a bit.)

“Republicans will win this seat in November when the campaign resets to focus on Joe Biden and Democrats’ disastrous open-borders, soft-on-crime policies, rather than the specific circumstances that brought about this special election,” New York GOP Chair Ed Cox said in a statement late Tuesday.

Nassau County Republican Chairman Joseph Cairo told Gothamist said he had no regrets about selecting Pilip as their candidate, calling her “the best candidate for our party.”

Voter turnout was low, but it won’t be in November

Elections are not routinely scheduled in February for a reason. Winter weather doesn’t lend itself to an easy trip to the polls. That’s part of the reason both Suozzi and Pilip campaigns were offering rides to voters on Election Day, hoping to help any stragglers navigate the snowy streets.

As of 11 p.m., with about 85% of the votes in, roughly 154,000 ballots had been counted in the special election, according to the Associated Press. That number will go up as the remaining ballots are counted, but it’s still a fraction of the roughly 530,000 active voters in the district.

Turnout during presidential elections is routinely higher across New York. In 2020, it was roughly 70% in this district.

One strategy used by both campaigns that voters will likely see more of come November is a push for mail voting. Both campaigns sent out fliers with QR codes that a voter could scan and then immediately apply for an absentee or early mail ballot.

The early mail ballot is a new law that took effect in January. Republicans, led by Rep. Elise Stefanik, have challenged the law in court. But as long as it’s still on the books, both parties are taking advantage of it with Democrats taking the lead as early adopters.

New lines – new race?

There are two enormous, lingering questions for November: What will the congressional district boundaries look like? And who will get the Republican ballot line?

New York’s seemingly never-ending redistricting saga isn’t over yet, with all 26 of New York’s congressional districts still to be redrawn for the upcoming elections thanks to a successful Democratic lawsuit.

Redrawing the congressional districts could have a huge impact on the race. Will the district move further into Queens or south to pick up the town of Hempstead while shedding, say, the towns of Massapequa and Levittown? That could benefit Democrats. If it picks up some of the redder parts of Nassau County’s south shore, that could benefit Republicans.

We should get some answers soon.

The state Independent Redistricting Commission is scheduled to vote on a new congressional map — or maps, if the Democratic and GOP-aligned members can’t reach consensus — on Thursday. From there, it’ll go to the state Legislature for a vote.

If the Democrat-dominated Legislature votes the commission’s map(s) down, then lawmakers can step in and tweak the lines themselves.

“As long as the Democrats don't go crazy and invite [a Republican lawsuit], it's going to be not only a better turnout model [for Democrats in November], but it'll be better district lines,” Levy said.

Suozzi has said he intends on running for a full, two-year term in November. It’s unclear if Pilip will do the same; her larger-than-expected margin of defeat could give some Republicans pause.

New York’s congressional primaries are scheduled for June 25.

Catalina Gonella and Michelle Bocanegra contributed reporting.