NYC had significantly fewer homicides and shootings in August compared to past years

Shootings and murders across New York City dropped this August to some of the lowest numbers ever recorded for that time of year, according to new NYPD data.

The statistics are especially significant because violent crime tends to surge in the summer, and August is generally a month when gun violence is more prevalent as the hot weather brings people outside and encourages large gatherings, experts say.

But this August bucked that trend, according to the NYPD’s CompStat database. There were 74 shooting incidents citywide, down from 87 shootings in August 2023. This August’s figure is closer to numbers generally seen over winter months, and the lowest August total since record-keeping began in 1994.

Additionally, the 15 reported murders citywide this August represent the smallest group of victims in any August in more than three decades. August 2023 had more than twice as many murders, with 32 people killed, according to the data.

“Shootings and homicides are going down. That's in the city as well as nationwide,” said Christopher Herrmann, a professor at CUNY’s John Jay College of Criminal Justice who specializes in crime data and mapping. “It’s a reverse of the COVID problems that we had, right? So, it's better employment, better income, less food insecurity, less housing insecurity.”

Herrmann added that New York City actually has “a little catching up to do” in terms of the nationwide decline. Homicides are down 13% in NYC compared to this time in 2023, and down about 16% across the country.

Herrmann said some weather patterns in August could have played a role in keeping people indoors and out of trouble – including some periods of excessive heat and intense storms.

The NYPD attributed some of the progress in August to increasing patrols on the streets and subway systems, investigating and disrupting the “iron pipeline” — which funnels guns into New York City from other states — and arresting people it alleges are members of local gangs and crews. Officers also confiscated 532 illegal guns last month, around the average for this year.

Still, Herrmann warned that the picture is not all rosy.

“We're enjoying this decrease of 13% in murders and we're enjoying this 8% decrease in shootings [compared to this time in 2023], but we know that there's a bunch of neighborhoods around the city that aren’t kind of rejoicing,” Herrmann said. “Their numbers are going up, and some of them are doubling.”

Among the precincts seeing significant increases in shootings and murders are the 103rd precinct in Queens, which includes Jamaica and Hollis — reporting 13 shooting incidents so far this year compared to seven at this point last year, and five homicides this year while there were none within the same time period last year.

Brooklyn’s 73rd precinct, which includes Brownsville and Ocean Hill, is also experiencing a jump, with 36 reported shooting incidents this year compared to 30 by this time last year, and 13 reported murders this year compared to six by this time last year.

Other high-profile crime categories like rape and felony assault — classified as the kind of assault that leaves victims with serious injuries — are also on the rise, and ticked up slightly this August, according to the CompStat data.

Herrmann and Elizabeth Glazer — founder of the nonprofit civic research group Vital City — both said the assaults do more to affect public perception of safety than shootings, which Gothamist has found are largely concentrated on just a small percent of city blocks.

“They're the kinds of incidents that can happen anywhere in any neighborhood, on the subway, in the street, in Midtown,” Glazer said. Vital City recently released a report showing that felony assaults have been rising since 2020. Experts are trying to determine exactly why.

The nearly 20,000 felony assaults reported this year “is going to impact a lot more New Yorkers, and those numbers are going up, not down,” Herrmann said.

Robberies make up another highly visible crime category that has increased by a few hundred incidents so far this year, even though they ticked down slightly in August compared to July.

Herrmann said it’s important to take the data in context of the last few years, and also to focus on the areas still struggling with violent crime and other quality-of-life issues.

The first few days of September have already brought several high-profile incidents of deadly violence, including a fatal shooting at the popular West Indian Day parade and a fatal shooting at a subway station in Bed-Stuy.

“We're just getting back to normal really. We're trying to get back to those pre-COVID numbers,” he said. “My guess is it's going to take another year, but hopefully by the end of 2025, we're kind of back to where we should have been in 2019, 2020.”