How President-elect Trump’s proposed mass deportations could play out in NYC – or not

President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to “carry out the largest deportation operation in American history” isn’t going to happen in New York City, Mayor Eric Adams confidently predicted ahead of Tuesday’s election. Immigration law and policy experts did not share his confidence a day after Trump’s runaway victory.

“At the end of the day, the federal government has the authority, the only authority, to enforce immigration law,” said Lina Newton, a Hunter College political science professor who has researched federal immigration policies. Long-standing Supreme Court precedent recognizes Congress as having plenary power over immigration.

But there are numerous constitutional and logistical barriers, including lack of local cooperation and budgetary restraints, that could hamper Trump’s ability to implement his vision — and would certainly prevent him from doing so on “day one,” as he has pledged.

“The power of the president is different than his ability to execute that power,” said Muzaffar Chishti, senior fellow and director of the Migration Policy Institute office at NYU School of Law.

If enacted as promised, however, the sweeping initiative would upend the lives of the estimated 676,000 immigrant New Yorkers who lack citizenship or legal status, many of whom have lived and worked in the state for years. Immigration experts say their wholesale removal would cripple the city and state’s economy.

Adams said in a Monday press conference, “Mass deportation – that is not going to happen in New York City.”

And in the wake of Wednesday’s election result, Manuel Castro, the commissioner of the Mayor’s Office of Immigrant Affairs, said in Spanish at a press conference: “We will not be following the instructions of the federal government in cases of mass deportations.”

What it will look like

Trump has provided scant detail about how he’d implement his deportation policy, but it would likely target immigrants without legal permission to be in the country – for example someone who has overstayed a visa. It’s unclear, however, how such an effort would, if at all, affect the more than 220,000 asylum-seekers who have funneled through New York City since spring 2022.

About 60,000 migrants remain in New York City shelters. Asylum-seekers are authorized to remain in the country while awaiting a determination on their legal cases.

Potential early targets of a removal effort would be the 1.3 million immigrants in New York and the nation who remain in the country despite final removal orders requiring them to leave, Chishti said.

Experts theorize that the initiative would likely involve Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids and arrests at individuals’ homes and workplaces – both steps taken during prior large-scale removal efforts. New internment facilities or detention camps could be erected for detained migrants, to house them as their legal cases play out.

Such an initiative would cost an estimated $88 billion a year, and a loss of 4.2% to 6.8% in annual U.S. gross domestic product, according to an October report by the American Immigration Council. Such an expenditure would necessarily require congressional approval.

Immigrant families with mixed legal statuses could face separation. Industries that employ high numbers of unauthorized immigrants — like agriculture, construction, food service and hospitality — could face worker shortages, according to the policy experts. Immigrants without legal status account for about 5% of New York state’s workforce, according to a Center for Migration Studies analysis.

“It would be like the ‘Muslim ban,’ but on steroids,” said Newton, referring to Trump's first-term executive order prohibiting entry of foreign nationals from seven predominantly Muslim countries. “This is going to be a very, very different visual – to have cameras following workplace raids… The chaos.”

Newton said in the workplace raids she’d seen elsewhere, including in Pennsylvania and Iowa, children later returned to their homes only to discover their parents had been taken.

Policy barriers

Legal challenges would likely follow any deportation plans, just as they did with Trump’s “Muslim ban.” Civil liberties limitations also apply to ICE officers looking to enter homes and workplaces, actions that can require warrants from immigration judges already facing long backlogs and yearslong dockets.

“We’re going to double or triple down on education [including on immigrants’ rights], so the community knows what their rights are,” said Murad Awawdeh, president and CEO of the state New York Immigration Coalition, an advocacy group for immigrants.

“Whether he [Trump] actually means to implement his rhetoric remains to be seen,” Chishti said.

He added, “Can it be operationalized, especially in a city like New York? It’s doubtful.”

Adams and his top advisers trumpeted their support for immigrants in a Wednesday morning press conference. The mayor emphasized that he didn’t want the election results to spark unnecessary fear, or keep immigrants from reporting crimes or sending their children to school.

“We also intend to protect our immigrant communities,” Adams said. “Regardless of immigration status, we will be here for you. New York City will always remain a city of immigrants.”

Adams added that he plans to uphold the city’s so-called “sanctuary city” protections, which limit the NYPD’s ability to cooperate with federal immigration authorities – though he criticizes the measures as overly restrictive.

Adams said he thinks police should be empowered to cooperate with ICE if an accused person has served time for "serious" crimes. He previously said suspects of serious or violent crimes also warranted such collaboration.

The city’s current laws prevent NYPD from honoring requests from ICE to hold or detain suspects unless the person has been convicted of certain violent crimes and a judge has ordered their deportation. Current laws also prohibit the use of city personnel or other resources to help enforce immigration laws.

Local and state officials could pursue further protections to limit cooperation, and data-sharing with ICE. But Trump could retaliate against local governments that refuse to comply. The former president has said he’d consider withholding funding to police departments that don’t cooperate, according to NBC News.

“Then the question is how much cooperation does ICE need to carry this out?” Newton said.

If Trump chooses to deploy the National Guard, as he’s indicated he may, Gov. Kathy Hochul could deny his request. More than a half-century ago, President Dwight D. Eisenhower deployed the National Guard during “Operation Wetback,” the largest mass deportation program in American history.

The program targeted unauthorized Mexican workers across the southwestern border, and resulted in the deportation of tens to hundreds of thousands of people.

But Newton underscored the president's power to act.

“Operation Wetback was arbitrary. It was lawless. There were U.S. citizens deported,” she said. “That didn't stop it from happening.”