GOP makes gains in NY congressional seats as balance of power hangs

Tuesday’s midterm elections in New York saw several Democratic congressional seats flip red, though it remains unclear whether those gains were enough to contribute to a takeover of the House of Representatives.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrats secured 14 of the state’s 26 seats, with two races still not called, according to the Associated Press. Republicans have so far secured 10 New York congressional seats, up from eight in 2020.

The election was the first one under the state’s newly drawn congressional lines, which were decided following a contentious legal battle. Earlier this year, an appeals court struck down the Democrats’ proposed redistricting plan, citing the party had gerrymandered the districts, resulting in more competitive seats across the state. There was also one congressional seat that was no longer in play this year following the 2020 Census count, which allocated 26 seats to New York — down from the previous total of 27.

Republicans’ close margin in multiple congressional races across the state show that neither party has a stronghold, said Bruce Gyory, a Democratic political strategist.

“In two years, this could turn around,” Gyory said. “No one should feel they've locked these seats up for the long-term.”

The results also confirm the issues that New Yorkers care most about.

“Clearly, New York does not have much patience for people who want to take away a woman's reproductive health choices in that regard,” Gyory said. “They don't have a high tolerance for election deniers, but they also don't have any tolerance for people who they perceive as soft on crime.”

Though some Republican candidates framed their challengers as soft on crime, many Democrats in the state and across the country were able to cut through that messaging to gain support, said political consultant O’Brien Murray.

“Democrats stayed on message,” Murray said, pointing to the party’s effort to drum up votes around protecting access to abortion. “They were able to turn out their base.”

Though some congressional races are still playing out, one thing is for certain: Democrats will have significantly less power in Washington. This means both parties will likely focus on building support ahead of the next presidential election, Gyory said.

“The second half of this will be the 2024 elections, and can either party secure an enduring majority in the House of Representatives?” he said. “And I think that is a very open question.”

These are the New York congressional races that contributed to the Republican House majority:

A red takeover on Long Island

Democrats mounted aggressive campaign efforts across Long Island in the weeks before the election, sending first lady Jill Biden to campaign for candidates. With three races without an incumbent and new district lines, Democrats had hoped for a tight race across the four districts. But Republicans are poised to win across Nassau and Suffolk counties, with only one race yet to be called.

On Long Island, weak Democratic messaging on economic uncertainty and crime drove up the Republican margins, Gyory said. But that doesn’t mean the same will be true in 2024.

“Neither party should rest comfortably on how independent voters are going to break in Long Island,” Gyory said. “By 2024, we could be looking at a very different mix of how Long Island is going to react.”

Republicans narrowly win key upstate districts

Votes continue to be counted in two districts upstate where candidates remain neck and neck.

Support for Gov. Kathy Hochul aided the Democrats upstate, Gyory said. But they lost on messaging about crime, and didn’t have enough support in rural areas to carry the seats, he added.

Here’s a look at some high-profile races across the state:

NY-01: Nick LaLota (R) vs. Bridget Fleming (D)

Rep. Lee Zeldin, the Republican nominee for governor, held this seat before his unsuccessful bid for governor, making it an open race in the district long held by a Republican. President Joe Biden narrowly won the district in 2020, leaving Democrats hopeful the seat could swing. But Nick Lalota, who served as chief of staff to the Suffolk County Legislature, won the district by a margin over 10%.

NY-02: Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R) vs. Jackie Gordon (D)

Andrew Garbarino, an attorney and former member of the state Assembly, won this district by a narrow margin in 2020. Since then, the district was redrawn, pushing it more blue and leaving Democrats hopeful they could win the seat back. But Garbarino carried the district comfortably in this race, winning over 60% of the vote.

NY-03: Robert Zimmerman (D) vs. George Santos (R)

Republicans succeeded in picking up a seat in this open race along the north shore of Long Island, which Democrats had previously held. The race, which is the first House general election between two openly gay men, was the subject of heavy campaigning by both parties. First lady Jill Biden campaigned for Zimmerman in the week before the election, but Santos ultimately managed to flip the seat for Republicans.

NY-04: Laura Gillen (D) vs. Anthony D’Esposito (R)

Republicans flipped a seat in this close race in a district long favored by Democrats. The open race drew heavy campaigning and fundraising from the Republican Party, and helped secure a full red takeover through Long Island.

NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) vs. Max Rose (D)

Incumbent Nicole Malliotakis held onto the one Republican seat in New York City, staving off Democratic Max Rose and capturing over 60% of the vote, comfortably securing the seat for the Republicans.

The district, comprising Staten Island and a sliver of Brooklyn, was the subject of highly contested redistricting earlier this year. But after an appeals court threw out the Democrats’ redistricting map, the district remained heavily in Republican favor. Full story on Malliotakis’ victory can be found here.

NY-17: Sean Patrick Maloney (D) vs. Michael Lawler (R)

Maloney, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, chose to run in this Democrat-leaning district following the state’s redistricting. However, Lawler picked up support this cycle from voters in the district and funders in Washington, managing to flip the seat for the Republicans by a slim margin.

NY-18: Pat Ryan (D) vs. Colin Schmitt (R)

In August, Pat Ryan won a special election for the 19th Congressional District seat, defeating the Republican incumbent. But after the state’s redistricting, he chose to run in the 18th District this cycle, which put him up against another incumbent. Some political analysts viewed the race as a bellwether for the Democratic Party.

Colin Schmitt conceded the race to Ryan on Wednesday morning, with Ryan ahead by a small margin. The Associated Press had yet to call the race as of Wednesday afternoon.

NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R) vs. Matt Castelli (D)

Elise Stefanik, the third-ranking House Republican, held onto her seat in New York’s northernmost district. Her opponent, Matt Castelli, campaigned as a moderate antidote to Stefanik, who refers to herself as “ultra-MAGA” and has called for the impeachment of President Joe Biden.

NY-22: Brandon Williams (R) vs. Francis Conole (D)

Redistricting significantly shifted the boundaries of this Republican-held Central New York district, which includes the cities of Syracuse, Rome and Utica. Democrats hoped to flip the seat in this race, which was viewed as competitive due to more urban voters and the lack of an incumbent. The Associated Press had yet to call the race as of Wednesday afternoon.