Emboldened by Suozzi’s win, can Democrats take back Long Island’s east end?

Tom Suozzi’s larger-than-expected victory in a special congressional election in eastern Queens and Nassau County earlier this month is giving Democrats a new jolt of confidence as they seek to retake the U.S. House of Representatives in elections this year — even in more challenging Republican-controlled terrain like parts of Long Island.

“The control of Congress could go through New York, could go through Long Island, could go through NY-1,” said John Avlon, a former CNN political analyst vying for the Democratic nomination in the 1st Congressional District.

He said the Democratic Party needs to field “a competitive candidate who can inspire the base, shake up the race, be a disruptor and then also appeal to independent voters, as we saw with Tom Suozzi.”

Avlon, who started his political career as a speechwriter for former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and later served as editor-in-chief of the online news site The Daily Beast, is the most recent entrant into an increasingly crowded field of Democrats seeking to oust first-term Republican Rep. Nick LaLota.

While the district is considered a swing seat, political observers say it’s a much tougher race for Democrats to win given the Republican shifts in recent elections and the latest redistricting process. And all that is after the Democratic candidate makes it through what could be a bruising primary.

Already, two Democrats are vying for the nomination, including Nancy Goroff, a former chemistry professor at Stony Brook University who ran unsuccessfully for the seat in 2020 but has already amassed local endorsements and a considerable campaign war chest.

Three other Democrats dropped out of the race: former Cuomo administration attorney Craig Herskowitz, former state Sen. James Gaughran and Kyle Hill, a first responder and health care policy expert who worked in Congress.

The eastern Long Island district currently spans from Huntington to Long Island's North and South Forks. Both Democrats and Republicans have represented it in recent years, though the GOP gained traction in the last elections. Democrat Tim Bishop last held the seat for six terms from 2002 to 2013.

Republican Lee Zeldin defeated him and represented the district from 2014 to 2021 before giving up the seat to run for governor in 2022.

Even though Zeldin lost his statewide bid, his name on the top of the ticket drove turnout across Long Island — including in the 1st Congressional District, where he beat Gov. Kathy Hochul by 14 points.

The district showed more signs of a rightward trend in last November's election as Republicans picked up the Suffolk County executive seat for the first time in 20 years.

Will Kiley, a spokesperson for LaLota’s campaign, criticized Avlon for jumping in the race as a relative newcomer to the district. Voting records show Avlon changed his voter registration from Manhattan to Sag Harbor in 2020.

“It may take burning millions of his friends’ money for Avalon [sic] to learn NY-1 has a history of rejecting out-of-state and Manhattan elitists from both sides of the aisle, who parachute into the district attempting to buy a seat in Congress,” said Kiley.

LaLota will run on his “common-sense conservative” record, which includes voting in favor of a bill slated to deliver $47 million in funding for local infrastructure projects addressing wastewater and stormwater issues, Kiley said.

He said LaLota is also working to restore the State and Local Tax deduction, or SALT — a major topic for higher-earning Long Island homeowners. A Trump-era tax bill passed in 2017 imposed a $10,000 cap on how much people can deduct from their state and local taxes. So far, Republican-led efforts on this front have been unsuccessful.

Kiley also noted that LaLota was among those who drove the effort to oust former Rep. George Santos, a fellow Republican, for lying to voters and misusing campaign funds.

Analysts note that Democrats face a much tougher race in the 1st Congressional District compared to Suozzi's recent election, with the recent redistricting changes approved by the state lawmakers.

Democrats in Albany approved new congressional maps Wednesday that would give their party a slight advantage come November. But the changes would add more areas that voted Republican during the last presidential and gubernatorial elections to the 1st Congressional District.

“Of all the swing districts in New York, LaLota’s is probably the least swingy. But it still swings,” said Larry Levy, executive dean for The National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University.

While the overall district is affluent, with a median household income of more than $126,000, according to census data, Levy notes there is also a strong “blue-collar, working-class” and white-collar population that tends to vote Republican.

The Legislature’s new boundaries for the 1st Congressional District remove a portion of Democratic voters from Huntington while adding more Republican voters from Brookhaven and Eastport into the district.

Biden won the 1st Congressional District by less than 1 point in 2020. But the tweaks to the boundaries would make the district one where Trump would have won by nearly 2 points, according to a tool produced by the Center for Urban Research at CUNY's Graduate Center.

The district is also nearly 75% white, 14% Hispanic, just over 5% Asian and just under 5% Black, according to census data.

Levy said more than one Democrat vying for the chance to run against LaLota is both good and bad news for the party.

“It shows there is a feeling among party people that he can beat,” Levy said.

By the same token, he added that Democrats should remember the lesson of the 3rd Congressional District primary in 2022, when Robert Zimmerman depleted his resources in a five-candidate primary to face Republican George Santos in a general election.

“The best thing LaLota hopes for is that Democrats knock themselves out, remain fractured and the national party decides with all the targets of opportunity in New York state, that his [district] is not the top of their list,” said Levy.

Ellie Dougherty, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the DCCC does not weigh in on primary contests. But she noted that the 1st Congressional District is on the organization’s list of “Districts in Play,” and called LaLota “one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country.”

“He’s running on a dangerous record of restricting abortion, cutting funding for public safety, and failing to advance any meaningful policies – including fixing the SALT deduction cap that LaLota’s pick for president, Donald Trump, implemented,” Dougherty said.

Besides Avlon, each of the Democrats currently seeking the seat also has a jump on fundraising.

Goroff leads the Democratic pack with more than $610,000, according to Federal Election Commission filings as of the end of last year. That puts her about $1 million behind LaLota.

The next quarterly filing is due by April 15, and will show fundraising for the first quarter of the year.

Goroff stressed that the crowded field of Democratic candidates signals that LaLota is vulnerable and voters want an alternative.

“We have serious problems that need to be solved like immigration and affordability,” said Goroff. “What we’ve seen from LaLota is that he only wants to use these issues as political talking points.”

There is also the presidential contest, which will be at the top of the ticket and is likely to feature a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who is all but certain to be the Republican nominee.

LaLota endorsed Trump for re-election back in January. Democrats like Avlon, who has written several books about presidential history, say Trump poses an existential risk to our democracy. He said combatting his supporters is part of why he jumped in the race in the first place.

“There are certain times in our nation’s history, and I say this as a historian, where it’s just up to citizens to step up and get in the arena,” Avlon said. “I felt this was one of those times that democracy is on the line.”