Electric vehicles make up 1% of NYC cars. Will an EPA emissions crackdown spark a boom?

New federal emission standards for cars are poised to spur electric vehicle production over the next 10 years. But if history is an indicator, densely populated cities like New York, where parking is limited and charging infrastructure is sparse, will need more to encourage the widespread adoption of electric cars.

Last week, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed its strictest emissions standards to date for cars, SUVs and other personal vehicles. If adopted by the EPA, the rules would require automakers to lower their vehicles’ carbon dioxide emissions for new fleets starting in 2027. The proposal aims to reduce these emissions by more than half by 2032.

The EPA’s bet is that steep pollution restrictions could be the catalyst to increase electric vehicle production to up to two-thirds of all new cars within 10 years. Yet environmental experts said NYC will have to get creative in order to build chargers and encourage residents to purchase electric vehicles while also making public transportation more environmentally friendly.

New York City is home to more than 2.24 million registered vehicles, but despite a pandemic-era boom, the latest figures from the Department of Motor Vehicles show that electric vehicles comprise just 1% of this total — or 25,075 cars. An analysis of the 200 most populous U.S. cities conducted by the International Council on Clean Transportation found that electric vehicle uptake was higher during 2020 in cities with more public chargers.

New York City ranked on lower end of the spectrum, with electric vehicles comprising about 2.5% of new purchases that year. New adoption in Los Angeles, by contrast, was closer to 10%. At the time, Los Angeles had around 1,100 public level 2 and fast chargers per 1 million residents — five times more than NYC.

While electric cars are the most direct path for automakers to meet the EPA’s proposal, environmental experts said it could be a tough sell for New York City drivers. Electric vehicles require frequent charging, and most owners charge their vehicles overnight. That requires unfettered access to designated and secure parking where a car can plug in.

“That's not the typical case in Manhattan for people to have a dedicated parking spot – same spot every night where they have a charger where they can plug in their car without fears of it getting messed with,” said Arthur Wheaton, director of labor studies at Cornell's School of Industrial and Labor Relations.

Most of NYC’s registered cars do not park in garages or have designated spaces to recharge. City drivers are at the mercy of competitive street parking.

Government officials are trying to get chargers online, but even with massive public pledges, consumer demand continues to outpace charging infrastructure in NYC. About 4,000 new electric vehicles moved into the boroughs over the last 12 months, but only 39 charging stations and 275 total ports went online citywide during the same period. This tally included 14 fast chargers, which help support commuters and long-distance drives.

Brooklyn — a progressive-leaning borough that often leads the city on environmental matters — actually recorded 1,400 fewer electric vehicles over the past year, while other areas saw gains.

The state’s current expansion plan is based on supporting 850,000 zero-emissions vehicles by 2025. But even based on these projections, New York City would have to build up to 3,000 new fast ports in about two years.

State officials have also committed to instituting new regulations and investing $1 billion in electrifying the transportation sector with the ultimate goal of zero emissions for all new vehicles by 2035. The funding includes proliferating New York state with charging stations. City Hall also plans to build 40,000 public level 2 chargers citywide and 6,000 fast chargers by 2030.

Electric vehicles aren’t the only way to meet the EPA standards

The EPA’s proposed standards are not a ban on gas cars, but it would be very difficult for automakers to meet the caps by just producing combustion engines. There are also no requirements for manufacturers to make or sell any electric vehicles.

The proposal would take the 2026 carbon emissions target of 186 grams per mile, about the weight of one cup of sugar pumped right into the atmosphere for every mile a single car drives, and cut it down to the mass of about 20 packets of sugar, or 82 grams of carbon dioxide per mile.

“What we're proposing to do is to take the 2026 standard and reduce it by anywhere between 56% and 61%,” said Joseph Goffman, principal deputy assistant administrator for EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation. “It's mostly in the hands of the car companies to figure out how they're going to meet the standards.”

But automakers have more options than just gas or electric. They can choose from a mix of technologies to reach emissions goals as long as the average pollution of an automaker’s entire new fleet does not exceed the limits.

Some of the available technologies include hybrids, hydrogen or flex fuels such as ethanol, which burn cleaner than gasoline. Car manufacturers also have the option of doing nothing, and purchasing credits to offset their pollution from companies that go well below the caps.

“It provides a very strong incentive to sell more electric vehicles because then you’re averaging in zeros, which makes it very easy to meet the standards,” said Kenneth Gillingham, professor of environmental and energy economics at Yale University's School of the Environment. “It is very dramatic, and the most ambitious standard, the steepest slope of a standard that we've pretty much ever had.”

While 10 years seems like enough time to build enough charging stations for mainstream adoption, New York City may need to get creative to support the EPA’s proposal. Wheaton said capitalizing on street-level charging could be one solution, including installing ports on streetlights. He also suggested that cars might sport their own solar panels by the time the standards arrive.

“You never know what you could do for vehicles,” Wheaton said.

In a city where most residents don’t even drive, electric vehicle adoption may need to be spearheaded by fleets of buses, taxis, trucks and company cars. These types of vehicles are easier to electrify than personal autos because they have designated spaces for parking and charging.

Starting in 2027, all new school buses in the Empire State will be electric. The city has already begun the process of electrifying its own fleet of cars across its agencies. In January, Mayor Eric Adams announced that about 1,000 fossil fuel-powered cars owned by the city would be replaced with electric ones with added funding for electrifying the sanitation department. The city’s overall plan is to add 4,000 new electric autos to its fleet by 2025 with the ultimate goal of reaching full carbon neutrality by 2040.

The EPA proposal is scheduled for public hearings in May. One of the questions the agency will ask the public is whether they should continue restricting emissions beyond 2032. The plan is to finalize new caps early next year, but the agency also expects its emissions standards to be challenged in court.

Jaclyn Jeffrey-Wilensky contributed reporting.