Battles over trans students’ rights could cost NJ Democrats in Tuesday’s election

The entire New Jersey state Legislature and many local school boards are up for election on Tuesday. Pollsters and strategists say parents who are upset over progressive school policies on issues like transgender rights and sex education could be a wild card — and could not only affect school board races, but also the balance of the state Senate and Assembly.

“We need to have more control over what happens to our kids and how our children are educated and what goes on in the schools,” said Nik Stouffer, the executive director of the New Jersey Project. She said the group opposes districts’ antidiscrimination protections for transgender students, based on state guidance, because they keep information away from parents. It also opposes lessons on sex education, slavery and the Holocaust that its members argue are being given to students who are too young.

Stouffer said the New Jersey Project reaches more than 100,000 people in New Jersey through social media and what she calls a “mom chain” via text. It’s recommending 481 candidates who are running for their local school boards across the state. It’s part of a national “parents rights” movement that has been successful in New Jersey — where some boards have rejected already-established policies limiting whether and when schools can disclose a students’ transgender status to their families, setting up legal battles with the state.

The movement’s successes have New Jersey Democrats worried about legislative races, too.

“I think that the board of ed races and turnout, certainly, will affect the state legislative races,” said Darcy Draeger, executive director of Districts for Democracy. The PAC was started by former Rep. Tom Malinowski to counter a conservative backlash against progressive policies in schools. It’s also endorsing school board candidates in almost every New Jersey county.

For the last two years, Draeger has examined ballots and noticed that the usual dropoff in vote totals for candidates at the bottom of the ballot — for the smaller, more local races — did not happen.

“What I saw last year, looking at returns, is that there were some school board races where they were getting as many votes as up-ballot races, like Congress or County Commissioner,” she said. And that has her concerned about the impact the school board races could have on the legislative races.

This year’s election is expected to have very low turnout because the state legislative races are at the top of the ticket, with no statewide or national races. In a low-turnout race, it’s the parties’ bases — the most dedicated voters — who typically still show up.

“When you have such a low turnout, as we expect this fall, that is what you're looking for, you're looking for those issues that could get your hardcore partisans to the polls,” said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan University Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship. “I think the Republicans have found themselves since the summer in a very fruitful policy environment.”

A poll released this month by Fairleigh Dickinson University found that when voters were first asked about parental control at school, their support of Republican candidates for the Legislature spiked up by 6 points. Asking the question had the most pronounced effect on independents.

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How to vote in New Jersey

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• Early voting is available until Sunday.
• Mailed ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, Tuesday. Mail-in ballots can also be placed in drop boxes or returned to county boards of election in person before 8 p.m. on Election Day.
• Polling locations are open until 8 p.m. Tuesday.

“They're certainly hitting this message really hard. So there's a huge upside for Republicans,” said Dan Cassino, director of the FDU Poll.

The New Jersey state Senate currently has 25 Democrats and 15 Republicans. The General Assembly has 46 Democrats and 34 Republicans. Fairleigh Dickinson University’s polling center said its findings suggest Democratic control of the Assembly could be at risk.

There are about 1 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey, but there are also 2.3 million unaffiliated voters. Although New Jersey hasn’t elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 50 years, three out of the eight governors elected during that time have been Republican.

“Republicans win when Democrats lose sight of affordability issues in New Jersey,” said MAD Global Strategy CEO Mike Duhaime, who works on Republican campaigns. He’s done work for George W. Bush, Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani. “Republicans gained seats in the Legislature two years ago because Democrats spent four years borrowing billions, raising taxes and increasing state spending to historic numbers.”

But in this year’s election, Democrats are talking about affordability, their plans for a senior property tax cut and abortion rights. And Republicans are talking about government overreach not only in schools, but also in the state’s ambitious clean energy plans. Many Republican officials oppose incentive programs to steer consumers away from gas stoves, electric cars and wind power.

“So the Republicans found themselves in a situation where you had dead whales washing up on the shore,” Dworkin said. Marine scientists say there’s no evidence the whale deaths are caused by activity related to the wind farms, which haven’t been built yet. But the misinformation persisted. “It motivated and turned what had been a very bipartisan effort in alternative energy with offshore wind into a very partisan issue.”

Danish wind company Orsted announced this week it would pull out of plans for two offshore wind projects in New Jersey, which could also cause problems for Democrats heading into the election.

But many in New Jersey have already voted. According to an election researcher for the Associated Press, 240,358 Democrats and 84,506 Republicans either voted early or mailed a ballot with one week to go. Another 50,779 votes have been cast by independents.