A rise in religious hate crime, bias in NY since the Israel-Hamas war? The picture’s murky.

After the deadly Oct. 7 attack by Hamas in Israeli towns bordering Gaza, Jewish and Muslim leaders in the United States, along with law enforcement and other public officials, predicted an increase in religious hate crimes and bias complaints.

There’s early evidence the worries have been justified, including the fatal Oct. 14 stabbing in suburban Chicago of a 6-year-old Palestinian American boy, who was attacked along with his mother “due to them being Muslim,” police said. Yet the full picture remains murky, including in New York City, where authorities have released only partial data on attacks since the Hamas attack and ensuing fighting. Further, hate crimes experts say, extra media coverage can fuel spikes in reporting, if not actual incidents, clouding the picture.

Nonetheless, reports of religious hate crimes, bias incidents and related complaints, in New York and the region, continue to flow from law enforcement and unofficial sources, including Jewish and Muslim organizations. Their tallies run the gamut from threats on social media to physical assault, against the backdrop of the unfolding Israel-Hamas war.

The NYPD on Friday arrested two men on hate crime and other charges following an Oct. 11 incident in Bay Ridge, where nine men waving an IsraelI flag allegedly accosted three men – identified as Egyptian and Palestinian – near 86th Street and Fourth Avenue. Police said the group – seven others remain at large – is accused of making anti-Muslim and anti-Palestinian remarks before assaulting an 18-year-old victim. Gabi Zaibak, 28, and Eddie Zaibak, 26, face assault, aggravated harassment and menacing, all as hate crimes, police said.

On Thursday, a Manhattan man was arrested on charges he assaulted a 19-year-old Sikh man on an MTA bus near 118th Street and Liberty Avenue in Queens on Oct. 15. According to the NYPD, 26-year-old Christopher Philippeaux repeatedly struck the victim in his face and the back of his head, tried to remove his turban, and stated, “We don’t wear that in this country.” He faces assault and hate crime charges.

Elsewhere, the NYPD said a man punched a 29-year-old woman at the Grand Central-42nd Street subway station last weekend. According to police, the man told the victim before fleeing that he struck her "because you're Jewish." And on the day of the Hamas attack, two men in Flatbush, Brooklyn made antisemitic remarks to a 14-year-old boy before pushing him to the ground and fleeing, according to surveillance video and reporting by PIX11. Jewish and Muslim leaders and advocates in New York say they are fielding calls detailing similar and other wrongful acts daily.

Here’s what we know so far about the bigger picture in New York.

Has there been a rise hate crime locally?

Statewide, there has been an increase in reports of alleged “anti-Israeli/anti-Jewish and anti-Palestinian/anti-Muslim hate & biased crimes” since Oct. 7, according to a statement from Deanna Cohen, acting director of the New York State Police Public Information Office. Cohen, however, declined to provide details or underlying data supporting the claim.

Likewise, the NYPD released data show 15 antisemitic hate crimes and two anti-Muslim hate crimes were added to the department’s yearlong tally sometime between Oct. 8-15, but the department did not specify when the incidents occurred. NYPD also declined to provide hate crime data for weeks prior to Oct. 7, making it difficult to make comparisons.

For the year, as of Oct. 15, according to the NYPD data, 176 antisemitic hate crimes had been reported and nine anti-Muslim hate crimes. The numbers are subject to change because some cases are still under investigation and ultimately could be deemed not to be hate crimes at all.

Mayor Eric Adams addressed the issue of reported hate crimes with reporters on Tuesday, but offered little in the way of clarity, stating, “There are no stats showing that there’s a substantial increase in attacks on Palestinians.”

Any other caveats about the data?

Experts warn that underreporting, delays in reporting, and any misclassification of potential hate crimes limit how useful law enforcement data is in drawing conclusions about such incidents.

Additionally, not all racist, antisemitic or Islamophobic incidents may rise to the level of being categorized as a hate crime – or even a crime at all. The designation requires an underlying crime such as assault or robbery, and brings with it the possibility of more punishment on conviction.

Under state law, hate crimes must be motivated by someone’s real or perceived race, color, national origin, ancestry, gender identity, national origin, ancestry, religion, age, disability or sexual orientation.

And it follows that some bias, while perhaps hurtful to those being singled out, isn’t actionable at all. That includes, for example, speech protected by the First Amendment.

Why so much worry?

The FBI, for one, reported last week that it was tracking increased numbers of threats against Jewish and Muslim Americans and called on local law enforcement to step up precautions. Attorney General Merrick Garland also warned of additional threats against Jewish, Muslim and Arab communities and said the justice department “remains vigilant” in its efforts to identify and respond to hate crimes.

Major news events frequently spark upticks in bias crimes targeting certain groups, such as the rise in anti-Asian hate crimes at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic or the increase in anti-Muslim hate crimes after the 9/11 attacks. Frank Pezzella, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice who studies hate crimes, called the phenomenon "scapegoating."

Conflicts in the Middle East involving Israel also are frequently tied to a rise in antisemitic hate crimes in the United States, according to Etzion Neuer, senior deputy director for the New York/New Jersey office for the Anti-Defamation League. The FBI’s advisory last week noted it was tracking an increase in anti-Jewish threats in the United States even before Oct. 7.

But Michael German, a former FBI special agent and fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law School, cautioned that the media blitz around a specific incident can also increase reporting about related hate crimes.

“Researchers will find these upticks around certain media events, and they're really measuring the attention to the crimes more than the crimes themselves,” German said.

Gov. Kathy Hochul on Friday announced a new hotline – 844-NO-2-HATE – and online form for reporting hate crimes with the state Division of Human Rights’ Hate and Bias Prevention Unit.

What are Muslim leaders saying?

Muslim leaders in New York and New Jersey say they’re receiving a deluge of phone calls, text messages and emails about Islamophobic and anti-Arab harassment and discrimination. They say the calls have ranged from bullying in schools to assaults by strangers.

“It's as bad as it's been since 9/11 and the Trump era,” said Afaf Nasher, the executive director of the New York chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, or CAIR.

Last year, the New Jersey chapter of CAIR received about three complaints per week of anti-Muslim harassment and discrimination, according to director Selaedin Maksut. In the past week, Maksut said his office received at least five complaints daily.

Bader El-Ghussein — a board member of Majils Ash-Shura, also known as the Islamic Leadership Council of New York, a coalition of mosques and Muslim organizations — said he receives about two to three calls per day on potential Islamophobic and anti-Arab incidents, which he forwards to the local CAIR chapter.

“In terms of the community here, everybody's on edge,” El-Ghussein said.

How about Jewish leaders?

“We’ve seen an explosion on online posts calling for violence against Israel, Zionists, and Jews,” said Mitchell Silber, the director of the Community Security Initiative, which monitors security and threats against the Jewish community in and around New York City.

Silber said his organization has identified more than 5,000 such social media posts tied to the New York area, particularly on platforms like Telegram, 4Chan and Gab. He said about a half-dozen were forwarded to law enforcement.

In terms of in-person antisemitic incidents, the numbers aren’t as clear. From Oct. 7 to 15, the Anti-Defamation League recorded 91 antisemitic incidents nationwide, 40 of them related to Israel, said Neuer, from the ADL office in New York. During the same period last year, the group recorded 79 antisemitic incidents, nine of them related to Israel.

By his estimation, Neuer said, there has been at least a slight uptick in antisemitic incidents in New York City, pointing to a handful of recent attacks reported to the police.

“We are seeing a rise (in antisemitic incidents) now, but it’s still a mixed picture,” said Neuer. “It’s impossible to determine just how significant it is.”