‘2025 starts today’: An FBI inquiry into Mayor Adams’ campaign complicates reelection bid

Less than an hour after the news broke Thursday that FBI agents had raided the home of a key fundraiser for Mayor Eric Adams, Evan Roth Smith, a political consultant and pollster, posted a hot take on social media.

“2025 starts today,” he wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

The statement is a sign of the growing confidence among critics and strategists that Adams, a moderate Democrat, may now be politically vulnerable.

The mayor has not been accused of wrongdoing, but he faces a significant reelection threat in the form of multiple public corruption investigations into his campaign and inner circle, the boundaries of which are still unclear. Images of a dramatic early morning raid that compelled Adams to cancel a visit to the White House and race back to the city amounted to a political earthquake for some.

An incumbent Democrat in City Hall traditionally would be very hard to beat. And Adams’ prolific fundraising has helped discourage challengers. But the mayor’s antagonism of the left wing of his party combined with two criminal inquiries, federal and local, into his money-raising machine, have emboldened his political enemies.

“He’s begging for a challenger, and one with integrity,” said Connor Farrell, the CEO and founder of Left Rising, a political group that raises money for progressive causes and candidates, in a text.

“He’s in some real s--,” he added.

Evan Thies, a spokesperson for Adams’ re-election campaign, did not comment but instead provided a statement from state Assemblymember Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, who also leads the Brooklyn Democratic Party.

“The 2025 election is nearly two years from today. Anyone scamming and scheming to oppose the mayor right now cares more about their own future than New Yorkers’. Like Mayor Adams is doing, they should be spending their time and energy addressing the challenges New Yorkers are facing instead.”

Up until this week, most experts had predicted that the mayor would face a “spirited” contest from the left but would likely survive the challenge, according to Smith who worked as a pollster for 2021 mayoral candidate Andrew Yang.

In addition to incumbency, Adams, who is the city’s second Black mayor, stands to benefit from a coalition of Black and Latino voters, significant union support and a formidable campaign war chest.

“People might say we don’t like his policy on this or that, or that he broke a campaign promise. But what mayor hasn’t faced that? They’re all grievances that are part of the due course of politics in New York,” Smith said. “Now, he’s facing something much bigger than that.”

That bigger something involved federal agents searching and hauling out boxes from the Brooklyn home of Brianna Suggs, a 25-year-old fundraiser who began working for Adams as an intern when he was Brooklyn borough president.

According to a federal warrant obtained by the New York Times, investigators are looking into a potential conspiracy between the campaign and the Turkish government among other illegal activities. The raid comes months after the Manhattan district attorney’s office indicted six people for allegedly coordinating illegal donations to the mayor’s 2021 campaign.

The number of concerning probes coupled with the extremity of the federal allegations is leading some to see a blood-in-the-water moment.

At least two progressives are said to be sending out feelers. Politico reported an unnamed source saying Jessica Ramos, a state senator from Queens, was calling potential supporters as early as Thursday. A person familiar with Brooklyn state senator, Zellnor Myrie, said the latter was also expressing renewed interest in exploring a run.

But if conversations are heating up behind-the-scenes, those interested in running appear to be laying low, at least for now.

Neither Ramos nor Myrie responded to requests for comment.

Jasmine Gripper and Ana María Archila, incoming co-directors for the left-leaning Working Families Party, released a statement criticizing Adams, saying they were “disturbed” by the campaign finance inquiry.

“While we don’t yet know where this investigation will lead, it’s become abundantly clear that Mayor Adams’s focus is not on the wellbeing of working people in our city,” they added.

But Ravi Mangla, a WFP spokesperson declined to comment on the record about the mayor’s electoral prospects.

Other candidates whose names have been floated include City Comptroller Brad Lander, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, Congressman Jamaal Bowman and Christine Quinn, the former City Council City who unsuccessfully ran for mayor in 2013.

Bill Neidhardt, a progressive strategist and sharp critic of Adams, argued that the mayor’s reelection prospects had been weakening even prior to Thursday’s news. He said voters had a “plethora” of policy decisions, such as the migrant crisis and budget cuts, that should dissuade them from giving the mayor a second term.

“I think if you look at his ability to win another election, a federal corruption scandal is certainly up there,” he said. “But I think you could argue that cutting public school budgets is even more detrimental.”

This is not the first time Adams has faced questions about his fundraising tactics and the conduct of members of inner circle.

Dwayne Montgomery — a former NYPD inspector who’s known Adams for decades — is facing charges from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg that he organized a straw donor scheme that exploited the city’s generous matching funds program.

Eric Ulrich, the former buildings commissioner, has been indicted by Bragg for taking bribes to dole out favors for friends, associates and business interests.

And most recently, Tim Pearson, another former NYPD official and longtime friend of Adams, has come under a city investigation for allegedly assaulting a security guard at a migrant shelter.

Although her relationship with the mayor spans a shorter period, Suggs has been described as someone who is in frequent touch with the mayor. According to several people familiar with her work history, she was a protege of Ingrid Lewis-Martin, the mayor’s chief adviser and longtime confidante.

“The fact that it’s getting closer to him is concerning,” said Basil Smikle, a former Democratic strategist who worked on the campaign for Adams’ 2021 primary rival Ray McGuire.

Adams has steadfastly maintained that he holds his campaign to the highest ethical standards.

“If anyone did anything inappropriate outside of our compliance procedures, law enforcement will determine that,” Adams said in an interview Friday with WPIX-11. “This is new and evolving. I have not been contacted by any law enforcement agency and no one has been told they did anything wrong.”

He later issued a stronger statement.

“I am outraged and angry if anyone attempted to use the campaign to manipulate our democracy and defraud our campaign,” he said. “I want to be clear, I have no knowledge, direct or otherwise, of any improper fundraising activity — and certainly not of any foreign money. We will of course work with officials to respond to inquiries, as appropriate — as we always have.”

Smikle cautioned against underestimating Adams’ prowess as a candidate, especially if the investigation turns out to be limited in scope.

“What works to the mayor’s benefit is that he is still very popular among his base and he’s still viewed as someone who is very strong in retail politics,” he said.

Many say the outlook for a challenger will become clearer as the investigation develops. On Friday, CNN reported that FBI agents executed “numerous search warrants” at residences and businesses across the New York area.

“I think we’re going to be learning things for months to come,” Neidhardt said.

This story was updated to include comment from state Assemblymember Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, who also leads the Brooklyn Democratic Party.