Tourists are staying away from the US. What does that mean for NYC?

A tourism slump has slammed the U.S. travel industry amid a torrent of controversial tariffs, the high-profile detentions of several European and Canadian tourists, and the political fallout from President Donald Trump’s calls to annex Canada.

And in New York City, which was the country's most popular tourist destination last year, tour guides say they’re already being crushed by lost business and cancellations as once-loyal customer bases boycott the nation. The worst, they fear, is yet to come.

“Foreign business is absolutely down anywhere from 30% to 60%, based on the Trump tariff scare and aggro annexing threats,” said Matt Levy, owner of the Queens-based Spread Love Tours, and a second-generation city tour guide.

In 2024, Spread Love Tours grossed $35,000 from Canadian high school trips to New York City. This year, Levy expects to make a fraction of that, and said he’s only grossed $5,000 from such trips so far this year.

“This breaks my heart, not just because I can’t employ 15 of the best tour guides in New York City to share their passion with visitors, but also, because those visitors are missing out on the energy diversity and culture that makes New York, New York,” Levy said.

Canadians, in particular, are staying away from the United States. Last year, 13 million foreign visitors came to New York City, including roughly 1 million Canadians, according to a report from the city’s tourism organization, NYC Tourism + Conventions. They were the second-largest group of foreign tourists behind visitors from the United Kingdom.

Their absence is already being felt at Like A Local Tours, which offers food, fashion and art tours of Brooklyn and Manhattan.

“No surprise, we are experiencing a major decline in visitors from one of our biggest markets, Canada,” said Lauren Beebe, Like A Local’s founder and CEO who attributed the decrease to the current economic climate. In addition to business from Canadians being way down, she said they’ve seen a downturn in another of the company’s key income streams: corporate outings around the boroughs.

Julie Coker, the president and CEO of NYC Tourism + Conventions, said in a statement that the city was committed to adapting to the “ever-evolving landscape while continuing to market NYC worldwide.”

"Despite the ongoing challenges posed by geopolitical shifts, New York City remains a global beacon of hospitality, offering an unmatched experience that transcends borders,” said Coker.

Those challenges are already being felt even by airline companies, with Air Canada reporting that transborder flight bookings were down 10% year-over-year for the April-to-September period, Bloomberg reported. The number of Canadians who have crossed the border from the United States by car in February is down 23% compared to the same time last year, according to Canada’s national statistics agency.

And it’s not just Canadians who are staying away: The number of international visitors to the United States was down 2.4% in February compared to one year earlier according to federal data. Several European countries – including Denmark, the United Kingdom and Germany – have issued new travel warnings about visits to the United States.

For now, the city isn’t showing evident signs of the fallout. Tourist hubs including Times Square and the Brooklyn Bridge were bustling this week, even when temperatures were near-freezing. Broadway shows enjoyed slightly heightened year-over-year attendance last week, according to data from the Broadway League.

But soon, tour guides predict, others will experience the downturn they’re feeling now.

“I think that as spring and summer really start to come in, we’re gonna start to see the streets being a lot more quiet,” said Luke Miller, who co-owns 18-year-old company Real New York Tours with his partner, a former Rockette.

Miller’s business has already been decimated by Canadians and Europeans — who make up about 50% of his customer base — canceling or not booking trips. The financial pain feels especially harsh at a time when he’s barely recovered from pandemic losses.

“I’ve already had 20 bus tours of Canadians cancel. That’s over 1,000 people,” he said. “The ripple effects of Trump’s ever-changing tariff policies and his behaviors are really being felt all throughout the tourism industry in New York City,” Miller said in a phone interview on Wednesday.

And some tourists who’ve recently visited the city have regretted it.

“I had my trip to New York planned months in advance, but knowing now what Trump represents I wish we had gone somewhere else,” said Simon Crump of Galway, Ireland, over a pint at Manhattan bar The Canuck last week.

Big Apple tour guides are hopeful the summer may bring more domestic travelers, but even that’d be unlikely to sufficiently compensate for the lost Canadian and European business. And more than anything, they said, the situation is frustrating and depressing.

“ The beauty of doing what we do is that I feel like we really get to break down these barriers with people and have a conversation,” said Miller, noting that folks of all political leanings have been on his tours, and no matter who they voted for “we wind up having a wonderful day together.”